Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Manoj M. Joshi  Jonathan M. Gregory  Mark J. Webb  David M. H. Sexton  Tim C. Johns 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(5):455-465

The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whose amplitude is more than those of the surrounding oceans. Using idealised GCM experiments with perturbed SSTs, we show that the land/sea contrast in equilibrium simulations is associated with local feedbacks and the hydrological cycle over land, rather than with externally imposed radiative forcing. This mechanism also explains a large component of the land/sea contrast in transient simulations as well. We propose a conceptual model with three elements: (1) there is a spatially variable level in the lower troposphere at which temperature change is the same over land and sea; (2) the dependence of lapse rate on moisture and temperature causes different changes in lapse rate upon warming over land and sea, and hence a surface land/sea temperature contrast; (3) moisture convergence over land predominantly takes place at levels significantly colder than the surface; wherever moisture supply over land is limited, the increase of evaporation over land upon warming is limited, reducing the relative humidity in the boundary layer over land, and hence also enhancing the land/sea contrast. The non-linearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship of saturation specific humidity to temperature is critical in (2) and (3). We examine the sensitivity of the land/sea contrast to model representations of different physical processes using a large ensemble of climate model integrations with perturbed parameters, and find that it is most sensitive to representation of large-scale cloud and stomatal closure. We discuss our results in the context of high-resolution and Earth-system modelling of climate change.  相似文献   

Extremely high temperatures in France at the end of the century     

S. Parey 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(1):99-112

Power plant construction requires anticipation to achieve a liable dimensioning on the long functioning time of the installation. In the present climate change context, dimensioning towards extremely high temperature for installations intended to run until the 2070s or later implies an evaluation of plausible extreme values at this time scale. This study is devoted to such an estimation for France, using both observation series and climate model simulation results. The climate model results are taken from the European PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects) project database of regional climate change scenarios for Europe. Comparison of high summer temperature distributions given by observations and climate models under current climate conditions, conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution, reveals that only a few models are able to correctly reproduce it. For these models, climate change under IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios leads to differences in the variability of high values, whose proportion has an important impact on future 100-year return levels. This study was first presented at the EGU General Assembly in Vienna, 2–7 April 2006.  相似文献   

夏季南海台风移动路径的一种客观预报方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄小燕  金龙  姚才  黄明策 《南京气象学院学报》2008,31(2):287-292

以1960—2003年共44a夏季的7月、8月、9月西行进入南海海域的台风样本为基础,综合考虑南海台风移动路径的气候持续因子和数值预报产品物理量因子,运用条件数方法选取因子并建立回归方程,进行台风路径预报模型的预报建模研究。通过对比分析发现,基于条件数方法的南海台风移动路径模型具有较好的预报效果,7月、8月、9月3个月24h台风路径预报的平均距离误差为153．9km,预报能力明显高于目前国内外的其他一些台风路径客观预报方法。该方法的预报精度相对于逐步回归方法有了很大的提高,相对于气候持续法也为正的预报技巧水平。  相似文献   

人类活动对20世纪中国西北地区气候变化影响检测和21世纪预测   总被引：42，自引：2，他引：40  

赵宗慈  丁一汇  徐影  张锦 《气候与环境研究》2003,8(1):26-34

使用各国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组(WG1)2001年科学评估报告中给出的7个全球气候系统模式(CCC、CCSR、CSIRO、DKRZ、GFDL、HADL、NCAR),对20世纪中国西北地区气候变化作检测表明,从观测计算得到的近百年中国西北地区气候变暖0.75℃和近50年气候变暖0.88℃,很可能与人类活动造成大气中温室气体浓度增加以及硫化物气溶胶增加有联系.所有模式的控制试验没有表现出明显的增暖趋势,但是,根据20世纪的排放,所有模式模拟出温室气体增加或温室气体与硫化物气溶胶增加,造成西北地区变暖平均为0.34～1.57℃/100 a和0.90～1.86℃/50 a.所有模式对21世纪中国西北地区气候变化的计算表明,21世纪由于人类活动排放温室气体增加,以及温室气体和硫化物气溶胶增加,西北地区气温将可能平均升高2.79～4.50℃/100a.对21世纪未来降水变化的分析表明,由于温室气体增加,以及由于温室气体和硫化物气溶胶增加,未来西北地区降水将可能增加48～60 mm/100a.由于全球气候模式在模拟区域尺度气候变化上存在较大的不确定性,以及人类活动排放的多样性,因此,对未来的预测展望存在不确定性.  相似文献   

凹凸棒石与Ni2+的长期吸附作用   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

谢晶晶  陈天虎  高薇  庆承松  谢巧勤 《矿物学报》2009,29(2)

以Ni2+为例研究了凹凸棒石与重金属离子长期作用过程,探讨了重金属离子在凹凸棒石上的吸附反应动力学,并运用高分辨透射电镜揭示了凹凸棒石与重金属离子互相作用引起重金属离子水解沉淀、形成氢氧化物或层状双氢氧化物次生物相的现象.实验表明,凹凸棒石-Ni2+水悬浮体系中,随着时间的延长溶液的pH值逐渐升高,Ni2+浓度逐渐降低,并且长期作用后悬浮液的pH值和重金属离子浓度受到固/液比控制.Ni2+在凹凸棒石和水两相中的分配在长达40 d的时间内都没有达到完全平衡,表明凹凸棒石-Ni2+水悬浮体系中存在凹凸棒石与重金属离子长期互相作用.凹凸棒石与Ni2+长期作用Ni2+浓度变化可以用抛物线扩散方程、双常数方程、一级扩散方程、Elovich方程较好地拟合.凹凸棒石与重金属的长期作用反应机制可能是由于凹凸棒石纳米效应和反应活性,表面缓慢水化导致含重金属离子溶液pH值缓慢升高,诱导了Ni2+在凹凸棒石表面沉淀,在凹凸棒石表面形成了氢氧化物或层状双氢氧化物.  相似文献   

Nonlinear analysis of laterally loaded rigid piles in cohesionless soil     

Lianyang Zhang 《Computers and Geotechnics》2009

In this paper, a method is developed for nonlinear analysis of laterally loaded rigid piles in cohesionless soil. The method assumes that both the ultimate soil resistance and the modulus of horizontal subgrade reaction increase linearly with depth. By considering the force and moment equilibrium, the system equations are derived for a rigid pile under a lateral eccentric load. An iteration scheme containing three main steps is then proposed to solve the system equations to obtain the response of the pile. To determine the ultimate soil resistance and the modulus of horizontal subgrade reaction required in the analysis, related expressions are selected by reviewing and assessing the existing methods. The degradation of the modulus of horizontal subgrade reaction with pile displacement at ground surface is also considered. The developed method is validated by comparing its results with those of centrifugal tests and three-dimensional finite element analysis. Applications of the developed method to laboratory model and field test piles also show good agreement between the predictions and the experimental results.  相似文献   

High swell warnings in the Caribbean Islands during March 2008     

Jean-Michel Lefèvre 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(2):361-370

Long and high swells are dangerous for many islands located in the Tropics because they can generate large breakers and long run up associated with large set up when reaching the coast. Most of the time those islands do not experience large waves especially in usually protected areas, for instance, by coral reefs or wind protected. Long waves have the ability to reach such areas, thanks to wave set up, shoaling and bottom refraction. This article describes an example of such high swell events and its impact on the islands. The buoy network used by the French National Weather Service and all available satellite observations related to waves are presented together with numerical sea-state models used to issue early warnings.  相似文献   

Seismic response analysis of the deep saturated soil deposits in Shanghai     

Yu Huang  Weimin Ye  Zhuchang Chen 《Environmental Geology》2009,56(6):1163-1169

The quaternary deposits in Shanghai are horizontal soil layers of thickness up to about 280 m in the urban area with an annual groundwater table between 0.5 and 0.7 m from the surface. The characteristics of deep saturated deposits may have important influences upon seismic response of the ground in Shanghai. Based on the Biot theory for porous media, the water-saturated soil deposits are modeled as a two-phase porous system consisting of solid and fluid phases, in this paper. A nonlinear constitutive model for predicting the seismic response of the ground is developed to describe the dynamic characters of the deep-saturated soil deposits in Shanghai. Subsequently, the seismic response of a typical site with 280 m deep soil layers, which is subjected to four base excitations (El Centro, Taft, Sunan, and Tangshan earthquakes), is analyzed in terms of an effective stress-based finite element method with the proposed constitutive model. Special emphasis is given to the computed results of accelerations, excess pore-water pressures, and settlements during the seismic excitations. It has been found that the analysis can capture fundamental aspects of the ground response and produce preliminary results for seismic assessment.  相似文献   

内蒙古克什克腾旗小东沟斑岩型钼矿床成岩成矿机制探讨   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  

覃锋  刘建明  曾庆栋  罗照华 《岩石学报》2009,25(12):3357-3368

本文选取内蒙古克什克腾旗的小东沟斑岩型钼矿区作为研究区,它位于西拉沐伦钼矿带的西南部.对小东沟岩体进行了主微量元素、SHRIMP锆石U-Pb定年等地球化学方面的研究;对岩体中的钾长石和含矿矿物辉钼矿进行了普通铅同位素分析.小东沟岩体具有高硅富钾、REE含量低、Zr含量高、无负铕异常、高ε_(Nd)(t)、低Sr_i等特点,指示岩浆起源于加厚新生下地壳的熔融,同时具有高温、快速熔融、快速析离逃离源区的特点;小东沟岩体的SHRIMP锆石U-Pb定年结果为142±2Ma,对应140Ma左右主应力场由南北向转为东西向的构造体制大转折时期,这个时期大兴安岭处于伸展的构造环境下,底侵作用发育,地幔物质可以添加到下地壳熔融形成的岩浆中;对岩体钾长石和辉钼矿进行的普通铅同位素分析显示前者具有从造山带-地幔过渡的特征,后者则显示有地幔特征,说明成岩、成矿物质来自两个不同的源区,下地壳的岩浆和地幔含矿流体发生了混合.通过以上的分析,结合水-岩浆物理反应的实验结果,本文提出小东沟斑岩型钼矿床的成矿模式:大兴安岭地区在早白垩世伸展的构造背景下,地幔含矿流体加入受底侵作用加热的下地壳中使之熔融形成岩浆,随后更多的地幔含矿流体进入岩浆房,促使其迅速析离逃逸出源区,二者一起上升侵位.在岩浆温度较高时,地幔舍矿流体和岩浆大致以较稳定的液态不混溶的状态共存;当岩浆和流体侵位到较浅深度时,压力下降,温度降低,晶体增多,流体-岩浆体系变得不稳定,岩浆被流体分割成许多很小的岩浆团.流体中H~+、K~+和各种成矿元素的存在使之必然会和岩浆或冷却后形成的岩石发生蚀变反应,并晶出成矿矿物,形成现在我们看到的具有浸染状矿化现象的小东沟斑岩型钼矿床.  相似文献   

A landslide forecasting model using ground based SAR data: The Portalet case study   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

G. Herrera  J.A. Fernndez-Merodo  J. Mulas  M. Pastor  G. Luzi  O. Monserrat 《Engineering Geology》2009,105(3-4):220-230

  相似文献